Health Care Town Halls

Rapp Session. August 28th, 2009-09-05

Will the town hall meetings on health care reform have any effect on the lawmakers hosting them?

The short answer is no. Since the late 1980s, House districts have become politically homogenous. It’s the one issue that GOP and Democratic lawmakers can agree on: lets make our own districts easier to retain. As a result, individual members are less vulnerable to public sentiment. Each election cycle we watch about 40 House seats not the whole 535.

If the town hall meetings do have any sway (i.e., on those 40 toss-ups seats), it is likely that they will be swayed against the proposed health care reforms. Happy/positive people tend to be more complacent politically and thus, negative movements have disproportionate influence.

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